Originally Posted by kblair7

Okay. So I was wrong.

I had spent a good deal of time trying to rebut the presumption that we were on the road to recession--the default of the Carlyle fund is actually a good lesson to other managers to be far more careful when investing in (very risky) securities. Most of them crying about a 10 sigma event, that they could never have predicted the crash in the SP markets "a shock". That will make them think twice when assessing risk on options.

It has now become apparent that we have indeed slid into a crisis. This is not only effecting the United State but it will have global repercussions. It has been felt as far as Japan already when they announced they will be tightening credit due to the devaluing of the dollar against the Yen.



Unfortunately, all of this is a retrospective cycle it is impossible to know the long-term peak activity. I am pretty pessimistic about the short-term, after Bear Stearns announcement today--many think their survival is visibly questionable at this point, as do I. However the gov't bailed them out by injecting cash. IMO, they should have not been bailed out, its rewarding a bank who has not been a responsible lender. How could you give credit to someone who has not put a down payment on the RE? Not even 5% of the total cost before taxes? (thanks again IRS)

A good development from the LD is that core prices which exclude food and energy has NOT gone up.

Well what you do in a storm is put you're head down and hope you make it though.