Who Backs Whom
The race for Democratic superdelegates reached a milestone this week, when Barack Obama pulled even with Hillary Clinton in the battle for House and Senate support. As of Friday, they had 97 lawmakers each, while 92 remain uncommitted.
Some patterns are obvious. Clinton dominates with female members of Congress, with 36 endorsements to Obama's 17, with 11 uncommitted. Obama is backed by 23 members of the
Congressional Black Caucus, while Clinton has 15 CBC supporters, with three still uncommitted.
Nearly half of Clinton's endorsements, or 46 total, represent three states: New York, New Jersey and California. Obama's support is more geographically diverse, with over a third coming from states west of the
Mississippi River.
One curious trend is the large number of
Geoff Garin clients who have endorsed Obama. Garin, president of Peter D. Hart Research Associates, a leading polling firm, became a key part of Clinton's message team with the demotion of
Mark Penn in April, and it has polled for her campaign since March.
In the weeks since, quite a few Garin clients signed up with the other team, including Sen. Robert Casey (Pa.) and
Reps. Lois Capps (Calif.),
Baron P. Hill (Ind.) and
David E. Price (N.C.). Oklahoma Gov.
Brad Henry also endorsed Obama in April. In fact, most of Garin's political clients listed on his firm's Web site are either with Obama or are uncommitted.
Only one, North Carolina Gov.
Mike Easley, has declared support for Clinton in recent weeks, although Kentucky Gov.
Steve Beshear, another Garin client, is believed to be leaning in Clinton's direction.
Two lopsided categories show members who won their seats in the big Democratic sweep of 2006, and the most vulnerable Democrats on 2008 tickets. Nearly half of these lawmakers remain uncommitted, but those who have picked candidates prefer Obama. One Democrat who fits both categories, Indiana's Hill, signed on with the senator from Illinois even though he's the underdog in Hill's conservative district. Hill was lured in part by the thousands of new student voters the Obama campaign has registered on the
Indiana University campus in Bloomington.
Freshmen
Among freshman House and Senate members, the following are with Clinton:
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (R.I.) and
Reps. Michael Arcuri (N.Y.),
Yvette D. Clarke (N.Y.),
Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.),
John Hall (N.Y.),
Joe Sestak (Pa.) and
Betty Sutton (Ohio).
And here's Obama's freshman lineup: Sens.
Robert P. Casey Jr. (Pa.),
Amy Klobuchar (Minn.) and
Claire McCaskill (Mo.) and
Reps. Bruce Braley (Iowa),
Julia Carson (Ind.),
Kathy Castor (Fla.), Stephen I. Cohen (Tenn.),
Phil Hare (Ill.),
Baron Hill (Ind.),
Paul W. Hodes (N.H.), Hank Johnson (Ga.),
Steve Kagen (Wis.),
Dave Loebsack (Iowa),
Christopher S. Murphy (Conn.),
Patrick J. Murphy (Pa.),
Ed Perlmutter (Colo.),
Carol Shea-Porter (N.H.), Tim Walz (Minn.),
Peter Welch (Vt.) and
John Yarmuth (Ky.).
Vulnerables
Clinton has signed up just two lawmakers -- Gillibrand and Sestak -- who are targeted by Republicans in 2008. Obama has gained support from six vulnerables:
Reps. John Barrow (Ga.),
Melissa Bean (Ill.), Hill, Christopher Murphy (Conn.), Patrick Murphy (Pa.) and Shea-Porter.
These vulnerables remain uncommitted:
Sen. Mary Landrieu (La.) and
Reps. Nancy Boyda (Kan.), Chris Carney (Pa.),
Joe Donnelly (Ind.),
Gabrielle Giffords (Ariz.),
Nick Lampson (Tex.),
Tim Mahoney (Fla.),
Jim Marshall (Ga.),
Harry E. Mitchell (Ariz.),
Ciro D. Rodriguez (Tex.) and Zack Space (Ohio).
Uncommitted
Four senators elected in 2006 remain neutral:
Sherrod Brown (Ohio),
Benjamin L. Cardin (Md.),
Jon Tester (Mont.) and
James Webb (Va.). And these 2006 House members are uncommitted: Boyda (Kan.), Carney (Pa.), Courtney (Conn.), Donnelly (Ind.), Ellsworth (Ind.), Giffords (Ariz.), Hirono (Hawaii), Klein (Fla.), Lampson (Tex.), Mahoney (Fla.), McNerney (Calif.), Mitchell (Ariz.), Rodriguez (Tex.), Sarbanes (Md.), Shuler (N.C.) and Wilson (Ohio).