RK77

Age - Not Race - Will Determine the Election
Added by jnail on Sep 21, 2008 -

Yesterday AP wrote an article on the impact of race in this election. it was poorly researched and had lots of flaws - the least of which its author is Ron Fournier - a McCain cheerleader.


DUH! All of us know that race is playing a role and as the article points out it is likely a 5-6% effect in the polls right now. So lets accept this conclusion for discussion purposes.

What has not received much attention and I think will have far more impact is McCain's age. A new Ohio poll today is a good proxy for the race in general.

They asked if Obama's race or McCain's age would help or hurt them with voters.Results:

Race - net 6% hurt for Obama
Age - net 40% hurt for McCain

I would argue that the single biggest issue in the next 6 weeks will be the age issue. Why?

Simply put Obama and McCain will be on stage together 3 times side by side. The simple visual of the tall young confident Obama next to the old, grey, short McCain sends a strong message before a word is spoken.

McCain's recent gaffes (to be kind) seem to be increasing in frequency. His demeanor is getting like an angry old man. If this comes out in the debates and continues day to day people will flee from him in droves.

Obama has much to gain, as he did this week, being seen as the calm, smart, deliberative, thoughtful man he is. Being knowledgeable, to the point and able to attack McCain on his words and record in person will be a stark comparison to what McCain is likely to project. He will attack with lies, won't have all the facts and will try to get back on soundbites like Saddleback. That is not going to cut it in these debates.

If McCain is angry, a little slow and makes some gaffes coupled with Obama's performance and the visual of assured competent youthfulnness will finish McCain and the end result will be a Reaganesque rout.

Even today on ABC Sam Donaldson raised the issue of McCain's age and mental acuity after the week he has had with three days in a row of doozy mistakes.

In the end the polls are not reporting 3 important factors as well - the cellphone impact (2.8%), new voter turnout (??) and the ground game of Obama (est. 3%). Couple these with the Age issue and McCain is in real trouble unless he comes off as an adroit, composed, knowledgable and youthful man in the 3 debates.

I'll gonna put down my bet that he cannot accomplish that.

HarperLee

I only had MSNBC on for a half hour or so this morning, but of course
its big story of the day was the idiotic "Racial views steer white voters away from Obama" poll.

Ron Christie's take sickened me, but before I turned the television
off Eleanor Clift said that for every voter over 50 Obama would lose
because of the race issue, he would pickup 2 voters under 30.

__________________
Oliver Stone on George W. Bush: "the banality of evil"

http://www.nationalpriorities.org/costofwar_home

RK77

From her lips to God's ears!