itsmeeeeeee

from real clear politics:

obama: 1542 clinton: 1447

super delegates
obama: 202 clinton: 241
(YESTERDAY IT WAS 196 TO 241)

pledged delegates
obama: 1340 clinton: 1206

popular vote on yesterday's primary:
obama: 12,946,615 clinton: 12,363,897

__________________

neptune

It would be an interesting excercise to keep an eye on the total popular vote over all of the primaries/caucusses (caucii?).

Clearly, the superdelegates are going to have to make a decision, and they should follow the popular vote total of the 50 states.

__________________

Holy Mudhead, mackerel! Morse Science High!
It's....disappeared!
-- Firesign Theatre

itsmeeeeeee

i'll start posting the real clear politics numbers daily.

since various sources show different numbers, i think it's important to use the same source for delegate counts if you want an accurate picture of the movement.

__________________

guest1234567

Thanks for pointing me to real clear politics. I've been looking for this type of information.

But I don't think the superdelegates should blindly look at numbers. They're going to have to be very stategic. They will have to look at whether the votes are in open primaries or closed. Whether the states will obviously support any Dem over a Republican, and if not, Will that state carry the weight that's needed. I expect that states like NY and California will carry more weight than Hawaii. We never got to hear from Michigan, and I'm gonna bet that the NAFTA thing is pissing off quite a few auto workers.

This is a fun election to watch. And we're going to see what the candidates are made of, the good and the bad.

CosmicRocker

yes, the Super delegates are more than a simple mirror of the popular vote.

Their role is to use their judgement as party officials to decide which candidate is best for the party.

There is no set criteria for that judgement, each super uses his own.

It's getting pretty clear they WILL make the final decision, as neither canidate will be able to get a majority of delegates simply thru the primary.s

__________________

Traveling Wilburys (l to r)

Bob Dylan, Jeff Lynne, Tom Petty, George Harrison, Roy Orbison

neptune

True, there is no set criteria they must use, but can you imagine the party that lost the White House yet won the popular vote in 2000 being seen as condoning the override of a popular vote in 2008?

Very hard to believe this would actually happen.

__________________

Holy Mudhead, mackerel! Morse Science High!
It's....disappeared!
-- Firesign Theatre

guest1234567

I guess they should stop whining about that. Especially Gore should stop saying it in his speaches. It makes him look petty. They all know that the popular vote meant nothing and it really is just a rallying point for cry babies.

So now the DNC may have to make a decision. Strategy vs. Popularity.

There is talk about allowing Michigan and Florida to have a do-over primary. It seems to me this is the answer the DNC is praying for. This could give somebody enough delegates to go over the top. And it could be either one. But in my gut, I think Clinton would have the edge in those two places.

neptune

Absolutely they should redo the primaries there. But I don't think (mebbe I'm wrong on the arithmetic) that would provide a clear pledged delegate majority to one or the other (I think that raises the number from 2025 to 2208, or thereabouts...)

Nobody campaigned in either place. A lot could change, doncha think?

__________________

Holy Mudhead, mackerel! Morse Science High!
It's....disappeared!
-- Firesign Theatre

HarperLee

From email from the Obama campaign:

Our projections show the most likely outcome of yesterday's elections will be that Hillary Clinton gained 187 delegates, and we gained 183.

mudwhistle

A dead heat and Hillary's victories mean she won't withdraw.

Off to the convention we go.