mudwhistle

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 48% to 44% among men (45% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 64% to 31%.

Clinton leads 64% to 29% among white voters (82% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 79% to 18% among African American voters (14% of likely Democratic primary voters).

Clinton leads 52% to 43% among voters age 18 to 49 (50% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 62% to 31% among voters age 50 and older.

10% of all likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 24% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

23% of likely Democratic primary voters say that excessive exposure to Obama's advertising is causing them to support Clinton.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

EvilMonkey

ARG also had Hillary winning in Wisconsin by 5% and Obama in NC only winning by 3%. We all know how those turned out, don't we? Both of these polls were off by a mile and that's why nobody gives them any credibility.

But if it's twisted info you are after you can also go to AOL and find their online polls showing Hillary winning all over the country, Hillary supporters love to cite that one. The cool thing about that poll is that you can just vote over and over as many times as you like from any country.

RK77

Could you do me a personal favor and stake your life on those margins, Muddy?

mudwhistle

Top of the Ticket : Los Angeles Times : New poll shows Barack Obama tanking in Pennsylvania

The first fresh poll results from Pennsylvania are in since Barack Obama's "bitter" comments about people in small towns exploded as a news story, and the findings could hardly be worse for the Democratic presidential contender.

Intriguingly, the man in charge of the survey said interviews with voters indicate Obama's tumble in the state has more to do with what the candidate himself has said were ill-chosen words than anything else.

The new poll by American Research Group -- conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday -- gave Clinton 57% and Obama 37% (based on interviews with 600 Democrats, the survey has an error margin of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points). The 20-point margin is all the more dramatic because, just the week before, an ARG poll found the pair in a flat-out tie in Pennsylvania, each with 45%.

The previous findings had put the race closer than any others. And perhaps the new one exaggerates the bounce Clinton has gotten from the storm over Obama's remarks at a San Francisco fund-raiser. Other pollsters are in the field in Pennsylvania, and we eagerly await their results (an L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll of Democrats in the Keystone State -- as well as in North Carolina and Indiana -- will be ready mid-week).

Regardless, the New Hamphire-based ARG poll, may have identified a tactical worry for the Obama camp above and beyond the current controversy. Dick Bennett, head of the poll, told us today that even before the furor erupted, it appeared many Pennsylvania Democrats began to turn against Obama because they are simply sick and tired of seeing and hearing his ads.

Much as campaign consultants would be loath to agree, Bennett opined that a candidate "can spend too much money" on an ad campaign, and the saturation of Obama spots in Pennsylvania appear to be a classic example of "overkill" that ultimately does harm.

Bennett also reported that some of the Pennsylvanians who his company contacted went on to complain about the substance of the ubiquitous Obama ads. They are "about him, not voters or what their concerns are," Bennett said. And Obama's comment on attitudes in small towns served to reinforce that feeling.

itsmeeeeeee

HA!!!!

AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP - the worlds WORST polling organization!

i don't doubt that hillary will get a little bump from her "bitterthon",
but i bet it's REALLY pissing the clinton camp off they had to use it this far out from the primary to take the heat off bubba's bosnia banquet!

her bump will be gone by election day,
and the backlash will be in full swing by then.

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CosmicRocker

It's a 20 point swing.
Granted these guys got a poor tract record; but that is a "monster" swing

Lets see what the other polls start to say before iwe can see real movement

__________________

Try a little love. and it cant go wrong
Get on the right thing
My little love, you cant go wrong
Get on the right thing .

itsmeeeeeee

The Numbers Guy : Is Clinton's Pennsylvania Lead Really 20 Points?

April 14, 2008, 3:56 pm
Is Clinton’s Pennsylvania Lead Really 20 Points?

A new survey showing Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Sen. Barack Obama by 20 percentage points in Pennsylvania comes from a polling firm with a shaky track record this election season.

The poll, which topped the Drudge Report on Monday afternoon (”shock poll”), was issued by American Research Group Inc. (ARG). In the poll, conducted on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, 57% of likely Democratic voters said they were supporting Sen. Clinton, compared with 37% for Sen. Obama. Just last week, each candidate received 45% in an ARG poll in the state. Other recent polls generally show a much smaller Clinton lead.

But there are reasons to question ARG polling numbers. In a polling report card of 2008 primary accuracy issued by a rival survey company, ARG ranked in the bottom half of more than three dozen polling firms, among 2008 primaries through late February. It also ranked near the bottom in another ranking of pollster accuracy at fivethirtyeight.com, a Web site that tracks the Electoral College. And, as I wrote last month, the widely tracked polling averages at the political Web site Real Clear Politics don’t include ARG numbers, because of concerns about transparency. Like they’ve been in Pennsylvania, ARG polls also were volatile in previous primaries, notably in Wisconsin, which saw a 16-point swing in just two days.

Other pollsters’ numbers disagree with ARG’s. Clay Richards, who runs the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute’s Pennsylvania poll, said he doesn’t expect his poll that will be published Tuesday to show much difference from the last one, which had a Clinton lead of six points. “I don’t see that much movement in Pennsylvania myself,” Mr. Richards said by phone from Harrisburg on Monday. He declined to comment specifically on his rival’s contradictory numbers.

GOTTA BE PRETTY BAD IF REAL CLEAR POLITICS WON'T EVEN AVERAGE THEIR NUMBERS IN!!!

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Chantytown

DRS112

2....20...same dif....

CosmicRocker

she's up by 9 in Survey USA
Up by 6 in Rasmussen.

movement.

__________________

Try a little love. and it cant go wrong
Get on the right thing
My little love, you cant go wrong
Get on the right thing .