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Clinton losing traction over Obama in Pennsylvania, Indiana




Her formerly double-digit lead is now just a five-point margin in Pennsylvania, survey finds. The reduced margin makes a win for her there less significant. She trails Obama among Hoosiers.

By Janet Hook, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
2:00 PM PDT, April 15, 2008

WASHINGTON -- With three crucial Democratic primaries looming, Hillary Rodham Clinton may not be headed toward the blockbuster victories she needs to jump-start her presidential bid -- even in Pennsylvania, the state that was supposed to be her ace in the hole, a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has found.

The survey found the New York senator leading Barack Obama by just 5 percentage points in Pennsylvania, which votes next Tuesday. Such a margin would not give her much of a boost in the battle for the party's nomination.

What is more, the poll found Clinton trails Obama by 5 points in Indiana, another Rust Belt state that should play to her strengths among blue-collar voters.

In North Carolina, an Obama stronghold, he is running 13 points ahead.

The race remains volatile, however, because many likely voters in the Democratic primaries are still undecided -- 12% in Pennsylvania, 19% in Indiana and 17% in North Carolina.

"I could be one who goes into the voting box and makes up my mind at the polls," Gwen Hodavance, a receptionist in Paoli, Pa., said in an interview after participating in the poll. "Obama is the best candidate, the best articulator of the mood for change, but I don't know how he would be for president."

The results underscore the rough road ahead for Clinton in the balloting in Pennsylvania and, on May 6, in Indiana and North Carolina.

With the Illinois senator leading Clinton in the number of convention delegates selected, states won and popular votes cast, she is hoping that a decisive win in Pennsylvania and a victory in Indiana will slow Obama's momentum and bolster her plea for support from the party's superdelegates -- the elected officials, party leaders and activists who likely will decide the nomination.

The poll, conducted under the supervision of Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus, interviewed 623 voters in Pennsylvania, 687 in Indiana and 691 in North Carolina who expected to cast Democratic ballots. The margin of sampling error for the findings in each state is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The telephone interviews took place Thursday through Monday, meaning the bulk were conducted just as controversy broke out over an Obama remark widely criticized as demeaning rural voters in Pennsylvania. He suggested that for some residents of small towns, their commitment to gun rights, religious faith and hostility toward foreign trade had its roots in their "bitterness" about economic hardships.

No poll question was asked specifically about the comment.

However, voters were asked about another controversy that has dogged the candidate in recent weeks: racially incendiary comments made by the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., the now-retired pastor of Obama's church in Chicago. The furor prodded Obama to deliver a major speech on racial relations in America last month.

In Pennsylvania, the flap seems to have marginally helped Obama more than hurt him: 24% said his handling of the issue made them think more highly of him; 15% said it made them think less highly of him; 58% said it made no difference in their views.

Many Democratic voters, however, see Obama's association with Wright as posing a problem for him in the general election -- 46% in Pennsylvania said they expected it to hamper him in a contest with presumptive Republican nominee John McCain; in Indiana, 47% agreed with that, and in North Carolina, 42%.

"I can't help but thinking the church is a big influence on him," said Roberta Rowe, a retiree in West Middlesex, Pa. "I'd like to feel completely comfortable, but that one issue there is really gnawing at me."

In the follow-up interviews, some voters complained that the criticism of his pastor and the allegations that Obama is elitist are sideshows.

"All this back-and-forth is not really staying on the issues that I want to hear from" the White House candidates, said Joseph Robinson, a disabled worker in Lafayette, Ind. He was unmoved by Clinton's charge that Obama, because of his small-town comment, had shown he was out of touch with many Americans.

"She went to Yale, he went to Harvard," said Robinson, referring to the respective law schools from which they graduated.

The poll found Clinton leading Obama 46% to 41% in Pennsylvania -- a far cry from the double-digit margins she held in earlier polls.

In Indiana, where little polling has occurred, previous surveys gave Clinton the edge. The Times/Bloomberg poll put Obama ahead, 40% to 35%.

The leads in Pennsylvania and Indiana are within the poll's margin of sampling error.

In North Carolina, the poll found, Obama leads Clinton 47% to 34% -- a finding in keeping with expectations that he will do well in the state, which has a large African American population. Among blacks there, 71% supported Obama; only 5% backed Clinton and 24% were undecided.

One reason Clinton is struggling in Indiana and North Carolina is that a mainstay of her coalition in earlier contests -- women -- have been defecting. In Indiana, the poll found women split their vote, 35% for each candidate. In North Carolina, they favored Obama, 43% to 36%.

Looking ahead to the general election, many Democrats -- including some Clinton backers -- appear to have concluded that Obama might be in a better position to defeat McCain. In Indiana, for instance, 37% said they thought Obama would fare better against McCain in November, compared to 18% who said Clinton was more likely to beat the Republican.

"I would prefer Clinton, but Obama has less baggage to throw darts at," said Eric Beiz, a realtor in Indianapolis. "She is going to have a tough time."

Clinton also suffers from being seen as less admirable than Obama. Even in Pennsylvania, 47% of Democrats said he had more honesty and integrity, compared to 26% who thought that of Clinton.

"She doesn't tell the truth a lot," said Brannon Crace, a store manager in Frankfurt, Ind. "We've already been through the Clinton era."

In all three states, Clinton was seen as better equipped to handle trade and healthcare policy. But she does not appear to have been as persuasive in making a core argument of her campaign -- that she would be better prepared to lead the nation's military and foreign policy.

Asked who would be better as commander in chief, voters in North Carolina chose Obama, 45% to 28%; in Indiana, Obama was chosen 37% to 29%. Only in Pennsylvania did voters prefer Clinton as commander in chief, 44% to 39%.

There are some ominous signs that the party will not easily unify after a long and contentious primary fight. Fully 30% of Clinton supporters in North Carolina said they would switch to McCain if Obama is the nominee (only 14% of Obama backers would defect if Clinton was the nominee).

"McCain, I like him better than Obama," said Robert D. Hawkins Jr., a disabled veteran from Lenoir, N.C., who already has voted absentee for Clinton. "He's a Vietnam veteran, and I am too. I'm still learning more things about Obama."