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Old 04-30-2008, 07:31 AM   #41 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BlackVision View Post
You believe a democrat candidate can win the White House without those states? Please draw up a hypothetical and plausible electoral college map of a Democrat winning the national election without Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
A hypothetical and plausible electoral college map of a Democrat winning the national election without Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. NO PROBLEM! I'll get my team of statistitions working on that right away, should have something for you by lunch. Would that be quick enough for you?



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Originally Posted by BlackVision View Post
I'm amazed by your consistency to handpick polls that show the greatest point difference between Obama and Clinton. Just how do you do it? Each day several polls may be out but you always pick the one that would favor Obama the most. All I did was pick the latest poll available to me. None of the above states are critical states either. All of the above states combined would equal the electoral votes of Florida. And where's the polling dates?
...and talking about 'hand picking', did you just happen to randomly pick three of the few states Clinton won for this discussion?



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Oh, and to answer your question, Without a doubt I believe Obama can win. I reject your premise that he will lose the three states you selected. Unless you have a working crystal ball and seen into the future that Obama lost. Do you have a working crystal ball that can see into the future? Hm?

Last edited by Rollerball; 04-30-2008 at 07:34 AM.
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Old 04-30-2008, 07:51 AM   #42 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Dr. Zaius View Post
That would all be really great....if we didn't also know your opinion on gay rights.
hillary just panders to gays. her record sucks.

a LOT of gays are REALLY turning against her. especially after yesterday's "pansey" endorsement! whoooo baby, not going over good! check the comments out on that one on gay sites on the net!

i know for a FACT that she's lost two votes from close friends of mine who are gay recently, who've told me now that they've been getting more and more disillusioned - and it wasn't MY doing! knowing they were hillary supporters, i never discussed hillary with them, and didn't talk pro-obama, either - or the primaries at all, because both had told me in no uncertain terms they were backing hillary and they didn't care to discuss it! but in the last week, they both came to ME and said how disgusted they were - REALLY digusted. one's in NC, and she's just planning NOT to vote, and the other's here in wisconsin and she's backing obama now.
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Old 04-30-2008, 08:17 AM   #43 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by RK77 View Post
Bill Clinton only got 62 % of the Hispanic vote in 1996. Your basis for implying that Hillary would do better is what? And recall that in 2000 the margin of difference in Florida ---IN PARTICULAR---the margin represented a small percentage of the black vote.

There is a reason why the repukes targeted the black vote for suppression in Florida----DUH!!
Yeah I am not sure about the exact numbers, I know Cubans didn't go for Kerry because of the economic relations with Cuba thing.
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Old 04-30-2008, 11:26 AM   #44 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rollerball View Post
A hypothetical and plausible electoral college map of a Democrat winning the national election without Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. NO PROBLEM! I'll get my team of statistitions working on that right away, should have something for you by lunch. Would that be quick enough for you?
Go ahead. I'm very curious to see what red states you're going to paint blue to compensate for 68 electoral votes.

Here is the electoral college map of 2004.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...ollege2004.svg

So tell me, which of those red states you see are you going to color blue and come up to 68? Good luck with that.

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...and talking about 'hand picking', did you just happen to randomly pick three of the few states Clinton won for this discussion?
Are you kidding me? Random? Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania have been the most sought after swing states by both parties in all the recent presidential elections. This has nothing to do with picking states that Hillary won but what both parties consider the 3 most crucial swing states even before the primaries of this year.

Last edited by BlackVision; 04-30-2008 at 11:29 AM.
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Old 04-30-2008, 11:37 AM   #45 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BlackVision View Post
You believe a democrat candidate can win the White House without those states? Please draw up a hypothetical and plausible electoral college map of a Democrat winning the national election without Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.


I apologize for having tasks that are of greater importance to me. I know you miss me but..
Yea I miss you........

You got caught up in all the NBA games & screwed up your priorities like posting here................lol

Do I have to color the map to?? & add those little arrows pointing around????

The game has yet to begin & mcbush is hardly a ronnie regan..... The far right hate his ass as much as the far left........

I think this is gonna turn out to be quite a muddy affair & should be good for lots of laughs.......... jerry springer comes home to rot........
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Old 05-05-2008, 11:02 AM   #46 (permalink)
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[quote]
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlackVision View Post
I very clearly wrote Florida, Ohio, AND Pennsylvania. In 1992, Bill Clinton won Pennsylvania and Ohio. Obama is on pace to lose all 3.
Yes, duffas, you did. AND would mean that all 3 were required OR would any one or two or all three. DUH!


Quote:
There is no strong evidence that the electoral map will change much in 2008. This is a different time. A far more polarizing country politically than any time in the past. The 2000 and 2004 elections are nearly identical. There is more evidence that the 2008 election would be an electoral college map along the lines of 2000 and 2004 than of any drastic shift occurring.
The strong polarizing is the enviornment in which the electoral map tends to change. You have made my point.

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I'm willing to give you very good betting odds if you want to pick a Democrat taking Texas or South Carolina.
Before anyone with any sense would bet with you YOU would need to demonstrate that you know the difference between "AND" and "OR". Geez........
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Old 05-05-2008, 11:04 AM   #47 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Rigged View Post
Yeah I am not sure about the exact numbers, I know Cubans didn't go for Kerry because of the economic relations with Cuba thing.

Exactly. Not a reliable democratic voting block.
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Old 05-05-2008, 11:05 AM   #48 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Dr. Zaius View Post
That would all be really great....if we didn't also know your opinion on gay rights.
We who? I don't know them.
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Old 05-05-2008, 03:46 PM   #49 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RK77

Yes, duffas, you did. AND would mean that all 3 were required OR would any one or two or all three. DUH!
Apparently someone has poor language skills. Note that I stated the following:

"You believe a democrat candidate can win the White House without those states? Please draw up a hypothetical and plausible electoral college map of a Democrat winning the national election without Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania."--BlackVision


To which you replied:

"Sure Easy - Bill Clinton -- 1992 won without Florida"--RK77


Clearly showing your lack of comprehension ability. Obviously if I'm using the word "and" all the above must apply "Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania" I can't actually believe I have to pull out a dictionary out for you but:

and (conj) 1—used as a function word to indicate connection or addition especially of items within the same class or type ; used to join sentence elements of the same grammatical rank or function

or (conj) 1—used as a function word to indicate an alternative


Source: Merriam Webster

You see the word "and' joins the elements. In this case the elements are Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. But in your reply you tried to separate the elements by stating that Bill Clinton lost Florida but yet won Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Now if I stated:

"You believe a democrat candidate can win the White House without those states? Please draw up a hypothetical and plausible electoral college map of a Democrat winning the national election without Florida, Ohio, "OR" Pennsylvania."

I would be separating the elements rather than combining them. Then you can correctly respond:

"Sure Easy - Bill Clinton -- 1992 won without Florida"

But that's not what happened is it? If I made the following statement "I'm going to eat pop tarts and bagels for breakfast" Am I stating that I will eat both pop tarts and bagels or that I might eat one or the other? Seriously, go to your local community college, take some night classes, and brush up on your language skills... I hope you didn't just confuse the preceding sentence as though you can just pick to do one. *rolls eyes*

Quote:
The strong polarizing is the enviornment in which the electoral map tends to change. You have made my point.
Exactly what states are you expecting to change? California turning red? Texas turning blue? Provide some evidence that a change is occurring or just let it go. If a change so was evident, you should easily be able to answer this...

Name all the previous red states in recent past elections that you expect to turn blue or has a strong possibility of turning blue for a Democrat nominee. If you're having a difficult time answering this question, it just clearly shows the electoral college map isn't changing much and that you're just blowing air.

Quote:
Before anyone with any sense would bet with you YOU would need to demonstrate that you know the difference between "AND" and "OR". Geez........
LOL. "Hey kettle you're black"

Last edited by BlackVision; 05-05-2008 at 03:52 PM.
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Old 05-06-2008, 03:39 AM   #50 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BlackVision View Post
Do you believe Obama has a chance come November in the general election? Do you believe he's more electable than Hillary?

The latest heads up polls show Hillary would do better than Obama vs McCain by a couple points in a general election but that's just part of the story. Obama has lost all 3 critical swing states to Hillary. Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida to Hillary and all by considerable margins. And polls show he won't do any better against McCain in the general election. Current polls show that Obama would lose all 3 states to McCain whereas Hillary would win all 3 states. For Democrats to win the White House, winning 2 out of 3 of the above states is a must.

Does anybody here believe Obama has any chance at all especially in Florida? An elderly and hispanic state which is so far off from Obama's base? Rasmussen poll shows Obama trailing McCain by 15 points in Florida.

Florida: McCain vs. Obama. 53% McCain. 38% Obama McCain +15.0
Florida: McCain vs Clinton. 44% McCain. 45% Clinton Clinton +1.0

Source: Rasmussen 04/10 - 04/10; realclearpolitics.com


Ohio: McCain vs. Obama. 47% McCain. 45% Obama. McCain +2.0
Ohio: McCain vs. Clinton. 42% McCain. 53% Clinton. Clinton +11.0

Source: SurveyUSA 04/11 - 04/13; realclearpolitics.com


Pennsylvania: McCain vs Obama. 44% McCain. 43% Obama McCain +1.0
Pennsylvania: McCain vs Clinton. 42% McCain. 47% Clinton Clinton +5.0

Source: Rasmussen 04/24 - 04/24; realclearpolitics.com
Don't give a shit. I want Obama to be the next president, more than the other two candidates. Already voted for Obama in my state, still pulling for him. Say whatever you want. The fact that Obama made it this far sends a clear message to McCain. That Bush bullshit is over, and Obama is definitely running in '12, no matter what. So I don't think a McCain presidency will be all that bad. He won't invade Iran. He won't be able to sell it like Bush did. He doesn't have the charisma (nor the congress). The second McCain announced the invasion, all hell would break loose.

I'll vote for Hillary if she wins the nomination without Fla and Michigan, where Obama didn't campaign. She pulls that "nuclear option" crap, and fuck her. I'll never vote for her. I'll be writing Obama in on my ballot in November (along with 90% of Obama voters, making certain that Hillary has no chance of becoming president). But if she wins enough states left on the schedule and the popular votes and delegates go her way, and the super's decide to back her, I'm cool with her.
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Last edited by StillNoScript; 05-06-2008 at 03:47 AM.
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