BlackVision

Do you believe Obama has a chance come November in the general election? Do you believe he's more electable than Hillary?

The latest heads up polls show Hillary would do better than Obama vs McCain by a couple points in a general election but that's just part of the story. Obama has lost all 3 critical swing states to Hillary. Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida to Hillary and all by considerable margins. And polls show he won't do any better against McCain in the general election. Current polls show that Obama would lose all 3 states to McCain whereas Hillary would win all 3 states. For Democrats to win the White House, winning 2 out of 3 of the above states is a must.

Does anybody here believe Obama has any chance at all especially in Florida? An elderly and hispanic state which is so far off from Obama's base? Rasmussen poll shows Obama trailing McCain by 15 points in Florida.

Florida: McCain vs. Obama. 53% McCain. 38% Obama McCain +15.0
Florida: McCain vs Clinton. 44% McCain. 45% Clinton Clinton +1.0

Source: Rasmussen 04/10 - 04/10; realclearpolitics.com


Ohio: McCain vs. Obama. 47% McCain. 45% Obama. McCain +2.0
Ohio: McCain vs. Clinton. 42% McCain. 53% Clinton. Clinton +11.0

Source: SurveyUSA 04/11 - 04/13; realclearpolitics.com


Pennsylvania: McCain vs Obama. 44% McCain. 43% Obama McCain +1.0
Pennsylvania: McCain vs Clinton. 42% McCain. 47% Clinton Clinton +5.0

Source: Rasmussen 04/24 - 04/24; realclearpolitics.com

Jonesy

There was no real election in Florida. Why even attempt to make such a false claim?

BlackVision

You and I both know Obama would lose to Hillary in Florida whether election is held 3 months ago, today or 3 months from now. Let's not kid ourselves. Florida is just so far off from Obama's base. But the focal point here is the general election.

neptune

You can't seriously believe that polls now reflect the ground truth in November???

An Obama candidacy has the chance to change the electoral map -- Obama may lose traditional swing states, but puts others into play.

Obama has the stronger arguments against McCain -- on the war, on lobbyist influence, health care, jobs, etc, etc.

Plus, he will have a favorable down-ticket effect that Clinton would reverse.

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Holy Mudhead, mackerel! Morse Science High!
It's....disappeared!
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MarkMiller

But right now he is basicaly tied in the AP poll with McCain in the General election.

MarkMiller

How so?

Mithrall

Yes, and I also believe he has a better chance in the general election than does Hillary. Clinton supporters need to quit deluding themselves into thinking that stuff like Whitewater, Travelgate, Rose law firm, Bosnia snipers etc etc wont come up again in the general election. When your negatives are greater than your positives, you've got a real problem. When the majority of people don't think you are trustworthy, you've got a real problem. When some wingnut running to be president starts talking about obliterating other countries and nobody gives it much attention, WE'VE got a real problem. Maybe Hillary is running for president of the wrong country. I hear Iran is looking for a matching pair.

neptune

McCain has had a free ride from the press these last several months, while both Clinton and Obama have lost ground in comparison.

I concede the point about the polls being where they are now -- I'm saying that will change after the Dem. nom. bullshit comes to an end.

__________________

Holy Mudhead, mackerel! Morse Science High!
It's....disappeared!
-- Firesign Theatre

MarkMiller

Abso-freakin-lutely!

It could and probably will change tomorrow.

RK77

Do you believe that ANY democrat can win with less that 50% of the black vote---particularly if 30% of those voters VOTE REPUBLICAN?

Do you think that the repukes are not going to use this?


Florida has been Republican in all elections in the last 32 years except 1976 and 1996---are you folks learning impaired? There is NO even MARGINALLY rational basis for continuing to think that Hillary would win it.

Pennsylvannia goes republican if 20% of the african american vote does not turn out---or if 10% goes to the republicans.

Look---winning the dem primary in a state in no way indicates that the state would be dem in the national election. That is a retarded argument and you folks should get over it.