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How Oregon Could Help Obama Defy "White Working Class" Problem

How Oregon Could Help Obama Defy "White Working Class" Problem - Politics on The Huffington Post

The popular refrain within political circles is that Tuesday's Democratic primaries in Kentucky and Oregon will provide yet another demonstration of Sen. Barack Obama troubles among working class white voters. The Illinois Democrat, after all, is staring down a major loss in the former and a comfortable win in the latter.

It's an incomplete if not misleading analysis. If anything, socioeconomic statistics show that Oregon, as much as Kentucky and perhaps even more so than Ohio, is a state comprised of the white, middle-to-low income individuals who work in a struggling but still important manufacturing sector. Indeed, if the Senator were to win in the Beaver State on Tuesday - and all signs point to a victory - much of it will be on the backs of the very voters whom pundits believe have written him off.

The population of Oregon, according to census estimates is roughly 3.7 million, 90 percent of who are white and 1.9 percent of who are black. Eighteen percent of all jobs are manufacturing, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the median household income in 2004 was $42,568.

Compare those numbers to Ohio, the rust belt state where Obama's failure to connect with white working class voters emerged as a popular campaign theme. There are, according to census estimates, 11.4 million people in Ohio, 85 percent of who are white and 12 percent of who are black - much less homogeneous than Oregon. Slightly less than 15 percent of the states jobs are manufacturing (less than Oregon) and the average median household income is $43,371 (more than Oregon). Kentucky, where Sen. Hillary Clinton is likely to have a major victory on Tuesday, is quite similar. The Bluegrass state has an estimated population of 4.2 million, 90 percent of who are white and 7.5 percent of who are black - again less homogeneous than Oregon. Less than 17 percent of the jobs are manufacturing and the median household income in 2004 was $37,000.

So why, if Obama is supposedly having such troubles among the white working class - as evidenced by his defeat in Ohio and impending loss in Kentucky - is he slated to do so well among those voters in Oregon? Perhaps it's because the Senator's problems are far more geographic than socioeconomic.

"Oregon is a state where race has not been an animating factor of political campaigns in the past. It has not been an issue since the 1860s, and it is not going to matter to people in the current election," said Joseph Lowndes, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Oregon and author of "From the New Deal to the New Right: Race and the Southern Origins of Modern Conservatism. "Lunch-pale, white Democrats have become the signifier for journalists and it has been overused. Because as Oregon shows it doesn't matter."

Indeed, it is Oregon's political history, more than its population dynamics, which offers a friendly turf for the Obama campaign. The state, according to local officials, is filled with progressives and reformers -- inheritors, so to speak, of the counter-culture migrants who first came there. The political culture is hardly top-down. There is less Democratic Party machinery as compared to, say, Pennsylvania. Moreover, the I-5 corridor, as it is known, connects three relative urban areas that favor Democrats: Portland, Eugene and Salem. Meanwhile the eastern part of the state, traditionally conservative, has trended recently away from the GOP.

"[DNC Chairman] Howard Dean had a 50 state strategy and for Oregon that was a 36 county strategy," said Marc Siegal, a spokesperson for the state's Democratic Party. "We've been able to make inroads. And I think it is a fortunate confluence of the 36 county strategy, along with candidates who are inspiring voters in all parts of the state."

All of which is not to suggest that there isn't already a firm infrastructure of Democratic support within the state. Unlike Ohio or Kentucky, the state went for Sen. John Kerry in 2004. In fact, Oregonians have not voted for a Republican since Reagan in 1984. Since January, moreover, more than 110,000 people have registered as Democrats, roughly half of them new voters, the other half party switchers.

Obama is likely to win handily with the help of these individuals. But his potential victory in the state could also demonstrate that his candidacy, on some level, is having fewer problems with the white working class than conventional wisdom suggests.

"The people of Oregon are extremely progressive, and so Barack's message of change is resonating," said Nick Shapiro, the Senator's communications director in the state. "And also, the farther you go from Washington D.C. the more you want to change Washington D.C."

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CosmicRocker

sounds right.
It's more than just "white working class", as the numbers in WI. show, where Obama did carry them.

It's the more conservative ( Oregon in generalis more progressive than most of the country )
Battleground Dems in the East, and SE. America, that are the problem.

And those state like OH. WV, PA are key states for Dems.

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Traveling Wilburys (l to r)

Bob Dylan, Jeff Lynne, Tom Petty, George Harrison, Roy Orbison
```````````````````````````````````````
sitting on a sofa on a Sunday afternoon
going to the candidates debate
Laugh about it, shout about it
when you got to choose
every way you look at it you lose

Mrs. Robinson - Simon and Garfunkle

Curator

Obama can carry PA and maybe Ohio by a narrow margin. He doesn't need WV or KY in the general.

__________________
"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies."
- Groucho Marx

“You can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska.”
Gov Palin explaining her national security credentials.

"I am not opposed to all wars. I'm opposed to dumb wars."
-Barack Obama, October 2002

CosmicRocker

Pa yes - but Ohio was lost by Gore, and Kerry.
He got thumped by Clinton.
what makes you think all of a sudden he can carry Oh.?

not being argumentative, i'd just like to hear ur analysis on this.

__________________

Traveling Wilburys (l to r)

Bob Dylan, Jeff Lynne, Tom Petty, George Harrison, Roy Orbison
```````````````````````````````````````
sitting on a sofa on a Sunday afternoon
going to the candidates debate
Laugh about it, shout about it
when you got to choose
every way you look at it you lose

Mrs. Robinson - Simon and Garfunkle

RK77

Thumped?? 10% is a "thumped" now?

Gore won Michigan and PA---so he should not have needed Florida or Ohio (given your two of the four theory).

Obama does not need to win Ohio----get used to the concept!

Syxxt3

Actually, I said two of four. I also said it would still be close.

But, judging from recent history...it will come down to one. How much you wanna bet that that state's elections will be run by DieBold?

RK77

Now you gave up on Florida and Michigan? and you added W. Va?

Democrats have won Illinois every presidential election they won since 1916 except in 1976. Does that make Illinois CRITICAL too?

They have won Minnesota EVERY time they won since 1916! Does that make Minnesota KEY?

There is a point at which you are like a little kid playing grown up games! Give up! You are making yourself look stupid!

Rollerball

I know there is Electoral College Math at work here, but still, I have to roll my eyes whenever the pundits start reciting historic election statistics like a color guy at a baseball game. If you believe them about 17 states are "The Key".

Obama brings a whole new ball game. I don't believe the dried up old statistics from elections past are going to be much help to the pundits this year.

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Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.
Albert Einstein

Curator

Quinnipiac latest poll has it McCain 43% to Obama's 42%. I think with a bunch of new Democrats such as Governor Strickland and Senator Brown in 2006, this puts Ohio in play for Democrats. Especially if Obama picks Strickland as a running mate.

Secretary of State, Blackwell is gone and it was evident that he suppressed turnout in 2004 Democratic districts. He helped Bu$h win in 2004 but it cost him his job in 2006.

Plus I live in Ohio and I am confident.

__________________
"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies."
- Groucho Marx

“You can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska.”
Gov Palin explaining her national security credentials.

"I am not opposed to all wars. I'm opposed to dumb wars."
-Barack Obama, October 2002

Rollerball

As it should be.

You'd think others would heed the warning.
Bullshit Politics is over. Use it and lose it.

__________________
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.
Albert Einstein