itsmeeeeeee

In Contrast With Core Hillary Message, Carville Says He Thinks Obama "Will" Win General Election
By Greg Sargent - May 29, 2008, 5:21PM

TPM Election Central | Talking Points Memo | In Contrast With Core Hillary Message, Carville Says He Thinks Obama "Will" Win General Election

In a quick phone interview with me just now, prominent Hillary supporter James Carville diverged from the Hillary campaign message on several key "electability" questions, saying that he thinks Obama "will" win the general election.

Carville, surprisingly, also seemed to downplay Obama's problems with non-college whites -- a cornerstone of Hillary's electability claim -- saying that if Obama gets the same level of non-college whites that John Kerry did in 2004, he "will" win the general.

Asked if he thought Obama would beat McCain, Carville said: "I think he will. I think Democrats will win in November...There's a crushing desire for change in this country. No one has seen a party or brand held in such low esteem" than the Republicans.

Carville's repeated suggestions that Obama "will" beat McCain contrast with the core Hillary message -- repeated frequently by Hillary advisers -- that Obama merely "can" win a general election, while Hillary "will" win it. Carville's comments also suggest that with the fall contest looming, it's becoming tougher for prominent Hillary backers to sustain any argument that doesn't show full confidence in Obama's chances against McCain.

Carville stressed that he thought Hillary was a better bet against McCain, but reiterated his confidence in Obama. "Hillary would be a stronger candidate, but I think he'll win this thing," Carville said.

Asked about claims that Obama has a problem with non-college whites that could hamper his electability, Carville said that thanks to changes in the electorate, to win Obama merely has to match the performance of Kerry, who underperformed with that group.

"I would argue that if he gets what Kerry got he will still win the election, because the dynamics have changed," Carville said, pointing to likely larger turnout among young voters, African Americans and other demographic changes. Carville joked, however, that he'd be loath to see Obama fall below Kerry's performance.

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Mithrall

If I never have to hear that smarmy voice of his again it will be be too soon. I wish he would just disapear from the face of the earth and people would quit quoting him and inviting him to "comment".

Cookie

Is anyone else election weary? I just wish the whole thing was over. I may not even vote this year. I'm just disgusted with the whole process.

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Corgi butts drive me nuts.

itsmeeeeeee

yes. i am, too.

and i completely agree... it's been totally disgusting thus far.

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CosmicRocker

Glad to hear Carville say this.
It's not that Obama can't win; he said he thought she was a better candidate- but he can win too.

He seemed to count on the over ruling tide of Dem. victories this year, which Obama, or ANY Dem would benefit from.

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Traveling Wilburys (l to r)

Bob Dylan, Jeff Lynne, Tom Petty, George Harrison, Roy Orbison

Jonesy

Noted. Of course, with your attitude, Barack doing a great job is some kind of horror-show.

CosmicRocker

as long as he gets his foreign policy ideas together, it won't be a horror show.
He's getting there - now he needs to visit Iraq.

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Traveling Wilburys (l to r)

Bob Dylan, Jeff Lynne, Tom Petty, George Harrison, Roy Orbison

DanS.

If he adopts yours, Hillary's or McCains idea of foreign policy I will not vote for him...and I suspect most of those who do support him would not either....

no thanks....I've had 8 years of the neo-con foreign policy agenda....no more.

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Second Verse, Same as the First