OldManOnFire

If you think about our current technologies which propel our ground, water and air vehicles, except in those situations where there are little demands for torque/HP or thrust, as in common automobiles, all of them require an oil by-product such as gasoline, diesel or jet fuels. All the construction equipment, all the emergency equipment, farm implements, the cargo trucks, the cargo ships, all the commercial jets, the trains, all the military vehicles, etc. As of today there are no new technologies that will propel our jets, or tanks, or Caterpillar tractors but trains do have some options.

So, unless there is some new whiz-bang technology that comes out in the next 20-50 years that can propel a military tank, or a cargo ship, or the commercial jets, and the entire military apparatus, then it appears to me that in spite of less personal use of our automobiles, that the US will be a fuel oil guzzling nation for many decades to come.

And when new technologies are finally available (like hydrogen), unless they are dirt-cheap, they will be unaffordable, and any transition from oil to whatever drive-trains will be many many decades away.

What is bothersome about this for me, other than our continued dependence on oil and the CO2 emissions, it seems like those areas mentioned above will take priority over personal use of automobiles, etc. and we'll either be paying $10/gallon for gas or doing without...

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Did you know both our problems and the solutions can be found simply by looking in our mirrors...and...Never confuse the extraordinary stuff I think and write with that of a well-balanced person...

Malkavian

Oil demand increases as the standards of living around the world rise... Increasing debt will devalue USD and people (China etc) will simply stop lending us money.

Oil is still very cheap, so it will continue to be in demand... Even $10/gal gas won't do it. Europeans are getting close to that level, i think, but it does not overburden their lifestyles excessively. But lets say price of gas approaches $50/gal... It will become simply impossible to fill up a current gas tank, average people do not have $1000-$2000 to spend at the pump every week. Fuel efficiency will have to rise dramatically and consumption will drop.

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Woof!

Malkavian

The whole transportation deal will need to be rethought... Unless they really will make those jets powered by algae, those are unlikely to stick around... Small aircraft can already fly on diesel however (though not bio at the moment)... Same with construction and farm equipment, but i don't think there'll be enough biofuels to cover the entire US transportation sector. It'll have to shrink dramatically.

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Woof!

The_Heretic

On China's government specifically I disagree. I think they'll lend us more money precisely so they can control and- if they think they have to, undermine our economy. To the communist government economics has become another battle theater, and they've found the many weaknesses in our defense. Lending is one of their most effective weapons. It gets our country to pull the trigger on ourselves.

Cheap at $117/bbl?

Because they drive about a tenth of the distances we do. That's why they can get by on more expensive gas than we can.

They likewise won't be able to afford not to drive to work. The commute will simply be another form of indenturing the working poor.

Again, based on what trend? Scant few people have reduced their driving in response to increased costs.

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"Enough!!" -so rang Barack Obama's voice off the walls of Mile High Stadium

OldManOnFire

Just think how far out into the future we must imagine before the US can even reduce CO2 emissions or oil consumption by more than a couple of percent.

If the technologies do not exist, and if the options like hydrogen that do exist are unaffordable or inefficient, then 80% of our oil consumption cannot be reduced for many many decades to come.

Even taking more personal cars off of the roads cannot easily happen for decades since most areas do not have adequate public transportation. It takes years to design a public transportation system, then it takes more years to acquire permits and right-of-ways, then more years to find the funding, then more years to build.

Yes people can up to a point do small things to reduce their personal carbon footprint, like carpool, work-from-home, public transportation, etc. but they will be baby-steps in the grand scheme.

It appears to me that US citizens cannot easily change their transportation needs, therefore, as the cost of fuel climbs, the entire situation will grow worse and worse, with personal frustration, then business frustration, a tanking economy, etc.

Meanwhile the Middle East and Venezuela are raking in the oil profits while the super-power USA is going broke...

__________________
Did you know both our problems and the solutions can be found simply by looking in our mirrors...and...Never confuse the extraordinary stuff I think and write with that of a well-balanced person...

Malkavian

Lol, whenever Chinese attempt to take over American company, Congress makes a fuss out if it... They don't want us to collapse because they'll lose export market, and exporting lobbies are very strong in China.
Yes, of course. For an energy source, it's expensive, but for a chemical industry feedstock it's cheap. Even at $1000/bbl it may have some use... Granted, the age of plastic cups will be over, but high value, high performance plastics will continue to use oil.

With that i agree. That's why we are in urgent need of urban reorganization. Stuff needs to get local, supply chains should get either shorter or more efficient.

Well, see the point above. They'll move closer to workplace. There is no reason why people should spend hours waiting in traffic.
No trend yet. Transportation costs do not constitute a large enough expense for the majority of the population... yet. But encouraging signs are here - thanks to high prices, hybrids are more popular than ever. As prices rise, demand for greater fuel efficiency will increase again. And personally, i can't afford a new car, so i chose a place to live that was biking distance from my work. I only actually biked there once, but my old clunker of a car can last a long time on one tank. Next year, i was thinking about buying an AWD BMW 135, but with gas prices near $4, Honda Civic is starting to look attractive Unless BMW gets those high efficiency diesels into the US...

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Woof!

Malkavian

Those do not sound too difficult... I agree with the rest.

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Woof!

The_Heretic

Taking over companies isn't the main avenue of economic attack. If anything I'd rate those sorts of moves as a feint on China's part to distract from the real economic weapons at their disposal.

Not quite. See, they do want to tear us down, but they want to use our decline to build themselves up to the point they can thrive after our fall.

No, I think it'll be used up as fuel and be next to none left for anything else. Then new chemical compounds will have to be synthesized to replace petrolium plastics.

Oil and auto companies will join forces to oppose reorganization. And with the oil companies' money they'll win that fight. The oil companies have to completely fall under to clear the way, or totally change the basis of their business completely from oil.

Tripling of gas costs and that's not a huge hit?

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"Enough!!" -so rang Barack Obama's voice off the walls of Mile High Stadium

cheapseats

Today, I paid over $4 per gallon for the first time...$4.01 for premium. Los Angeles.

Exxon doesn't care because Exxon is making money hand over fist, doing it the way they're doing it.

If YOU-inclusive were making money hand over fist, within laws tailored specially for you, would YOU be much motivated to do it A.) differently and B.) less profitably in your lifetime?

A few would, certainly. A few would forego individual gain for collective good, but Big Oil isn't part of THAT Few.

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DRS112

Big Oil must hate California. Why else would gas be so much more there?

So....being more efficient and selling larger quantities than your competitors is wrong?

yeah...if we eliminated ALL profits from Exxon....your gas would cost as much as what I'm paying here.