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Dollar tumbles more than 2 cents
ROMA LUCIW

Globe and Mail Update

November 12, 2007 at 12:15 PM EST

The Canadian dollar dropped more than two cents on Monday, as traders extended last week's selloff amid a background of increased global risk aversion and falling commodity prices.

“Everything people have bought, they sold today. Everything they had sold, they bought,” Marc Chandler, a currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York, said in an interview. “So the Canadian dollar, which has been a high-flying currency, is having a setback today.”

The loonie slid to $1.0345 (U.S.) on Monday morning, down $0.0262 cents from Friday's closing price. According to Bloomberg, the Canadian dollar fell as much as 2.2 per cent on Monday, its largest drop since January 1971, when they started keeping data for the exchange rate.

The currency has outperformed all of its global peers this year, with a meteoric 22 per cent surge against the greenback. Last Wednesday it hit another milestone, hurtling above $1.10. But it failed to hang on to those gains, losing 4 per cent in the last five trading sessions.


The loonie slid to $1.0421 in Monday morning trade, down $1.86 from Friday's closing price. According to Bloomberg, it was the Canadian dollar's biggest one-day drop since February, 2005. (The Canadian Press)

Soaring commodity prices, a weak U.S. currency and solid domestic economic growth have helped lift the loonie to record highs. However, currency experts agree that the loonie has surpassed what is justified by economic fundamentals, and that part of the gains are stemming from speculative buyers who are looking for a quick profit.

Part of Monday's Canadian dollar weakness came on the back of lower oil prices, which retreated from last week's record highs near $99 a barrel, as well as falling bullion. Analysts said fears that slowing global growth will pare demand for commodities was fuelling the day's drop.

The increased risk aversion in commodity markets was being driven by concerns about a further and wider fallout from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. That has, in turn, caused investors to pull back from higher yielding currencies, like the Canadian and Australian dollars, and boosted the U.S greenback.

The American dollar rose against all major global currencies Monday, with the exception of the Japanese yen.

“That is really one driving force today for the Canadian dollar, people getting out of short yen positions,” Mr. Chandler said. “Market participants are unwinding their positions and reducing their overall risk exposure in thin holiday markets.”

U.S. bond markets were closed Monday for the Veterans Day holiday, leading to lower volumes and exaggerated trading actions.

Mr. Chandler said Monday that currency traders are taking profits where they can. The key issue, he said, is whether Monday's Canadian dollar losses are a trend reversal or a short-term fall driven by the unwinding of risk positions.

“We don't think this is necessarily a trend reversal,” he said. “Before Canadian exporters pat themselves on the back for dodging a bullet, we suspect the other shoe could still drop and that the Canadian dollar could get much stronger before it gets much weaker.”

U.S. investment newsletter writer Dennis Gartman is not so sure. “We take it quite seriously that the Canadian dollar has weakened as sharply as it has since mid-week last week, and we consider it a harbinger of a change relative to the euro, the British pound and to the carry trade generally.”

He noted that speculative buyers who have borrowed yen to invest in Canada have in the last month run into trouble and are facing problems for the first time in a long while. “This, we fear, can get very, very ugly, and do so very, very quickly.”

The soaring loonie claimed another Canadian corporate victim Monday. Conglomerate Onex Corp. reported a large third-quarter loss as its bottom line was hit by currency translation losses on U.S. cash and securities, as well as by non-cash charges on a recent acquisition. Onex keeps its accounts in Canadian dollars but does most of its business in U.S. dollars.

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