Analysis: Obama has advantage in head-to-head with McCain

EvilMonkey · 02-09-2008, 08:58 AM

Title
Analysis: Obama has advantage in head-to-head with McCain

Link
Analysis: Obama has advantage in head-to-head with McCain - CNN.com
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Excerpt

* Story Highlights
* Polls suggest Sens. Hillary Clinton and John McCain would be tied
* Sen. Barack Obama would have a clear lead over McCain, polls suggest
* Men would be more likely to vote for Obama than Clinton in a general election

From Bill Schneider
CNN Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Sen. John McCain became the likely Republican nominee after Mitt Romney decided to suspend his campaign Thursday. Now, the Democrats are debating who would do better against the Arizona Republican.

Two polls this month have asked registered voters nationwide how they would vote if the choice were between McCain and Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton.

A CNN poll, conducted by the Opinion Research Corporation February 1-3, shows Clinton three points ahead of McCain, 50 percent to 47 percent. That's within the poll's margin of error of 3 percentage points, meaning that the race is statistically tied..

A Time magazine poll, conducted February 1-4, also shows a dead heat between Clinton and McCain. Each was backed by 46 percent of those polled.

Sen. Barack Obama believes he can do better, arguing "I've got appeal that goes beyond our party."

In the CNN poll, Obama leads McCain by 8 points, 52 percent to 44 percent. That's outside the margin of error, meaning that Obama has the lead.

And in the Time poll, Obama leads McCain by 7 points, 48 percent to 41 percent -- a lead also outside of the poll's margin of error of 3 percentage points.

In both polls, Obama looks stronger than Clinton. Why?

Obama's explanation: "I think there is no doubt that she has higher negatives than any of the remaining Democratic candidates. That's just a fact, and there are some who will not vote for her."

That was three weeks ago. Now, only two Democratic candidates remain.

Clinton does have higher negatives than Obama -- and McCain. Forty-four percent of the public say they don't like Clinton, compared with 36 percent who don't like McCain and 31 percent who don't like Obama, according to the CNN poll conducted February 1-3.

Why does Obama do better against McCain than Clinton? Obama does do a little better than Clinton with independents and Republicans.

But the big difference is men: Men give McCain an 18-point lead over Clinton, 57 percent to 39 percent, according to the CNN poll. The margin of error for that question was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

But if McCain and Obama went head to head, McCain's lead among men shrinks to three, 49 percent to 46 percent -- statistically a tie.

Women, on the other hand, vote for either Clinton or Obama by similar margins.

Some Democrats may be worried about how Obama will fare with white voters. Whites give McCain a 15-point lead over Clinton, (56 percent for McCain, 41 percent for Clinton).

But Obama actually fares better than Clinton with white voters. McCain still leads, but by a smaller margin, (52 to 43 percent).

Obama argues that he can reach across party lines. And he does do a little better than Clinton with Independents and Republicans, at least in these polls.

But the big difference is that Clinton doesn't draw very well with men. Obama does.

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Comment:

^ How McCain will destroy the Clinton's

BillCosby · 02-09-2008, 12:03 PM

Quote:

In the CNN poll, Obama leads McCain by 8 points, 52 percent to 44 percent. That's outside the margin of error, meaning that Obama has the lead.

But it is her turn.................

She has earned this...............

How can the american ppl deny her this after all she has done for them..

She is ready to go day one. Her heart is bigger........ It aint about her wanting to be preisdent it is about what she can do for us........

She is in this fight for us............

. She said so..........

itsmeeeeeee · 02-09-2008, 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BillCosby

But it is her turn.................

She has earned this...............

How can the american ppl deny her this after all she has done for them..

She is ready to go day one. Her heart is bigger........ It aint about her wanting to be preisdent it is about what she can do for us........

She is in this fight for us............

. She said so..........

bingo!

not only does SHE feel it's her turn and that's she's entitled, a lot of her supporters seem to think the same way, despite the fact that the polls and most experts acknowledge that she is the weaker of the two candidates.

maybe today's primaries, and the ones to come in the next couple of weeks, will help clarify who the majority of voters think is the better, stronger, candidate. i sure hope so, because this election is too important to hand to someone just because it's "her turn".

kblair7 · 02-09-2008, 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by itsmeeeeeee

bingo!

not only does SHE feel it's her turn and that's she's entitled, a lot of her supporters seem to think the same way, despite the fact that the polls and most experts acknowledge that she is the weaker of the two candidates.

maybe today's primaries, and the ones to come in the next couple of weeks, will help clarify who the majority of voters think is the better, stronger, candidate. i sure hope so, because this election is too important to hand to someone just because it's "her turn".

The numbers sorta speak for themselves...she has a lead on delegates I think she is carrying like 1,063 and Obama has 962...he would have to close the gap by getting about 100 delegates. With under 20 primaries left its gunna be tight. If he can capture some of the more populous, larger states, he may be able to close the gap. GL to them both.

BillCosby · 02-09-2008, 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by itsmeeeeeee

bingo!

not only does SHE feel it's her turn and that's she's entitled, a lot of her supporters seem to think the same way, despite the fact that the polls and most experts acknowledge that she is the weaker of the two candidates.

maybe today's primaries, and the ones to come in the next couple of weeks, will help clarify who the majority of voters think is the better, stronger, candidate. i sure hope so, because this election is too important to hand to someone just because it's "her turn".

Momentum seems to be in favor of Obama..........

Will she bow out or fight to the last dirtied & dying democrat????

I could see him doing it.......... To be honest I can not visualize her taking the higher ground here..... Or anywhere........

PursuitOfHappinessParty · 02-09-2008, 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kblair7

The numbers sorta speak for themselves...she has a lead on delegates I think she is carrying like 1,063 and Obama has 962...he would have to close the gap by getting about 100 delegates. With under 20 primaries left its gunna be tight. If he can capture some of the more populous, larger states, he may be able to close the gap. GL to them both.

Karl Rove, of all people, laid out the scenarios on FNN a couple of nights ago. Made a really solid case on how Obama can't gain enough delegates considering the number needed and considering the primaries that are left.

djack · 02-09-2008, 01:40 PM

Anybody can beat McCain. The press is just telling you he's viable because they like to talk to insane people and they can always get a half crazed statement from McCain.
After Obama beats him what will he do? He doesn't know how to get anything done. He's Robert Redford in The Candidate. "What do we do now?"

itsmeeeeeee · 02-09-2008, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kblair7

The numbers sorta speak for themselves...she has a lead on delegates I think she is carrying like 1,063 and Obama has 962...he would have to close the gap by getting about 100 delegates. With under 20 primaries left its gunna be tight. If he can capture some of the more populous, larger states, he may be able to close the gap. GL to them both.

hell, he can probably get close to 100 delegates today! there's 56 in louisiana, alone!

itsmeeeeeee · 02-09-2008, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by djack

Anybody can beat McCain. The press is just telling you he's viable because they like to talk to insane people and they can always get a half crazed statement from McCain.
After Obama beats him what will he do? He doesn't know how to get anything done. He's Robert Redford in The Candidate. "What do we do now?"

those remarks are so idiotic that they barely dignify a response!

DanS. · 02-09-2008, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by itsmeeeeeee

hell, he can probably get close to 100 delegates today! there's 56 in louisiana, alone!

Clinton has done better in solid liberal states...states that will go for a dem no matter who the candidate is. Obama has done better in states that would b considered "battle ground" states....meaning he would have a better chance of picking up not only the solid liberal states(like Cali) and then also picking up the tougher states as well.

02-09-2008, 08:58 AM	#1 (permalink)
EvilMonkey Administrator Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Oregon Posts: 6,428 Blog Entries: 1 Thanks: 71 Thanked 455 Times in 278 Posts	Analysis: Obama has advantage in head-to-head with McCain Title Analysis: Obama has advantage in head-to-head with McCain Link Analysis: Obama has advantage in head-to-head with McCain - CNN.com ----------------------------------------------------- Excerpt * Story Highlights * Polls suggest Sens. Hillary Clinton and John McCain would be tied * Sen. Barack Obama would have a clear lead over McCain, polls suggest * Men would be more likely to vote for Obama than Clinton in a general election From Bill Schneider CNN Washington Bureau WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Sen. John McCain became the likely Republican nominee after Mitt Romney decided to suspend his campaign Thursday. Now, the Democrats are debating who would do better against the Arizona Republican. Two polls this month have asked registered voters nationwide how they would vote if the choice were between McCain and Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton. A CNN poll, conducted by the Opinion Research Corporation February 1-3, shows Clinton three points ahead of McCain, 50 percent to 47 percent. That's within the poll's margin of error of 3 percentage points, meaning that the race is statistically tied.. A Time magazine poll, conducted February 1-4, also shows a dead heat between Clinton and McCain. Each was backed by 46 percent of those polled. Sen. Barack Obama believes he can do better, arguing "I've got appeal that goes beyond our party." In the CNN poll, Obama leads McCain by 8 points, 52 percent to 44 percent. That's outside the margin of error, meaning that Obama has the lead. And in the Time poll, Obama leads McCain by 7 points, 48 percent to 41 percent -- a lead also outside of the poll's margin of error of 3 percentage points. In both polls, Obama looks stronger than Clinton. Why? Obama's explanation: "I think there is no doubt that she has higher negatives than any of the remaining Democratic candidates. That's just a fact, and there are some who will not vote for her." That was three weeks ago. Now, only two Democratic candidates remain. Clinton does have higher negatives than Obama -- and McCain. Forty-four percent of the public say they don't like Clinton, compared with 36 percent who don't like McCain and 31 percent who don't like Obama, according to the CNN poll conducted February 1-3. Why does Obama do better against McCain than Clinton? Obama does do a little better than Clinton with independents and Republicans. But the big difference is men: Men give McCain an 18-point lead over Clinton, 57 percent to 39 percent, according to the CNN poll. The margin of error for that question was plus or minus 5 percentage points. But if McCain and Obama went head to head, McCain's lead among men shrinks to three, 49 percent to 46 percent -- statistically a tie. Women, on the other hand, vote for either Clinton or Obama by similar margins. Some Democrats may be worried about how Obama will fare with white voters. Whites give McCain a 15-point lead over Clinton, (56 percent for McCain, 41 percent for Clinton). But Obama actually fares better than Clinton with white voters. McCain still leads, but by a smaller margin, (52 to 43 percent). Obama argues that he can reach across party lines. And he does do a little better than Clinton with Independents and Republicans, at least in these polls. But the big difference is that Clinton doesn't draw very well with men. Obama does. ------------------------------------------------------ Comment: ^ How McCain will destroy the Clinton's __________________ Barack Obama - Get the facts at BarackObamaWatch.com
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02-09-2008, 01:40 PM	#7 (permalink)
djack Chairman of the Bored Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,187 My Mood: Thanks: 0 Thanked 4 Times in 3 Posts	Anybody can beat McCain. The press is just telling you he's viable because they like to talk to insane people and they can always get a half crazed statement from McCain. After Obama beats him what will he do? He doesn't know how to get anything done. He's Robert Redford in The Candidate. "What do we do now?" __________________ "Last words are for fools who haven't said enough." Karl Marx (last words)
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